Looking at total global emissions, instead of per capita emissions, the richest 1 percent ―fewer people than the population of Germany― are expected to account for 16 percent of total global emissions by 2030, up from 13 percent in 1990 and 15 percent in 2015. This is a turnaround for a group, which is mostly made up of citizens in middle-income countries like China and South Africa that saw the fastest per capita emissions growth rates from 1990 to 2015. Someone in the richest 1 percent would need to reduce their emissions by around 97 percent compared with today to reach this level.īut in a sign that the 2015 Paris Agreement is having some impact, the middle 40 percent are on course for per capita emissions cuts of 9 percent from 2015 to 2030.The richest 1 percent and 10 percent of people are set to exceed this level by 30 times and 9 times, respectively.The poorest half of the global population will still emit far below the 1.5☌-aligned level in 2030.It treats the global population and income groups as if they were a single country. Today’s study, commissioned by Oxfam based on research carried out by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), estimates how governments’ pledges will affect the carbon footprints of richer and poorer people around the world. To stay within this guardrail, every person on Earth would need to emit an average of just 2.3 tons of CO2 per year by 2030 ―this is roughly half the average footprint of every person on Earth today. In 2015, governments agreed to the goal of limiting global heating to 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels, but current pledges to reduce emissions fall far short of what is needed. It comes as delegates grapple with how to keep this goal alive at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow. The carbon footprints of the richest 1 percent of people on Earth is set to be 30 times greater than the level compatible with the 1.5☌ goal of the Paris Agreement in 2030, according to new research out today. Footprints of poorest 50 percent set to remain well below this limit
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